Deal or No Deal? Trading Q&A

DEAL OR NO DEAL?

Hey everyone! Fantasy Football is just around the corner and it's time to get prepared. Sorry I have not posted anything in a long time due to being out of the country and not much happening in the NFL. I will start posting more and answering everyone's questions. 

Question: I just received a question from a gentlemen named Scott that is in a DYNASTY LEAGUE that said, "Got a trade question for you! I currently hold the 3, 5, 6 and 13 picks in our rookie draft. I was offered John Brown and 2 top 6 picks for next year for my number 3 pick in this years draft (which will probably be Amari Cooper). My Wide Receivers right now are Cobb, Hopkins and Allen Robinson. Do I make the Deal?

Answer: 

Scott,

Thank you for your question. I like helping people with these type of questions, especially if you are in a Dynasty league where every move you make could make or break your season(s). You have a lot of first round picks in this draft with 3 of them being in the top 6. Your receivers are pretty good, but passing up on Amari if you believe he will be there on the 3rd pick would be crazy. Amari is going to be the guy in a high volume passing offense. He is already getting compared to Antonio Brown. Randall Cobb will be consistent for you, DeAndre Hopkins will be either good or great depending on how well his quarterback performs and Allen Robinson is an average wideout that will either do okay or have a bad week. Your opponent giving you a hit or miss John Brown would also not help you. In this case, DON'T take the trade or you will regret losing out on Amari Cooper due to his upside and him being a rookie with plenty of years to possibly help you win your Dynasty League. Keep Allen Robinson as a backup, but he is not anything more than that.

My draft advice is always CHOOSE THE BEST PLAYER AND NOT BY WHAT POSITION YOU NEED THE MOST. BUILD A STACKED ROSTER AND IT WILL HELP YOUR TEAM WEEK IN AND WEEK OUT AND ALSO FOR TRADES. 

I hope this helped you out so that you can win your league this year. Make sure you ask me any other questions you may have and I would be glad to help. 

Austin Jensen

Fantasy Football Talk

Draft Strategies

DRAFT STRATEGIES

Year in and year out, you have to prepare yourself for your fantasy draft. Each year is different due to trades, free agent pick ups and rookies joining the fun. This year for 2015 is much different than the past few years due to several issues. I am writing this article to help 10 to 16 man leagues draft more efficient in the hopes that you will have a team with depth to get you to the playoffs. Below are different aspects you should look at while drafting.

Position Priority

If you haven't looked at the fantasy football rankings by the provider you use, you might want to. You would realize how one position is short on great players, while another one is stacked with talent. Below is a list in order by priority.

1. Running Back: Running Backs are at an all time low for fantasy owners. In previous years, you could hold off on drafting running backs due to there being 15 to 20 to choose from that would put up points consistently. This year there are only 9 to 10 running backs that are guaranteed to be consistent or not be a 50/50 chance of being a bust. Bad news is that most of these guys will be gone by the mid-second round in most leagues. Running back this year is the most important position to draft due to the scarcity. Draft 1 of these guys or take a risk of having a weak position on your roster.

2. Tight End: A great tight end was hard to find last year. It seemed that tight ends didn't have av consistent season except for a few elite ones. Outside of Graham and Gronk, there are only 4 other tight ends in my opinion that will give you points every week instead of giving you disappointing numbers half the season. Why worry about your tight end if you draft correctly? I believe the tight end position is not a first round draft pick. If you draft a tight end in the first round, get ready to have a rough year. If you draft Gronk or Graham, draft them at the end of the second or further. Draft the positions that you need multiple of first in the early rounds. That being said, even though the position is number 2 on my priority list, DON'T DRAFT IT TOO EARLY!

3. Quarterback: There are a lot of quarterbacks on the market in fantasy football. The reason they are at number 3 on my list is because I am in a 12 man custom league that starts 2 quarterbacks. For all of you that are in the base 1 quarterback leagues, this position can go to 4. Quarterbacks in my league get drafted fast. As you know, this position can give you a ton of points if you draft the elite ones. Be smart of who you draft and when because at quarterback, the Top 3 do the exact same as the next 7 by the end of the season. 

4. Wide Receiver: This is my favorite position and I lean on it every year. Usually, 2 out of my first 3 picks are wide receiver. This year on the other hand, there are so many of them to choose from. I do believe if you want to have the advantage in your league, draft 1 elite one. After that, you should be fine due to the mass selection. 

5. Kicker: Kickers actually give you consistent points if you have the right one on your team. I usually draft my kicker the second to last pick of the draft. I base my pick off the kickers schedule. I recommend going off how many indoor games they will have (The More the Better). Don't make the rookie mistake of looking at your roster during your draft and try to fill empty starting slots instead of filling up your bench with studs. Be smart, it's just a kicker. There are more than enough to rotate throughout the season depending on their match-ups.

6. Defense: Defense is the last thing you need to think about. I love when the people in my league draft a Defense in the middle of the draft. Why the heck would you do that? It helps your opponents stack their bench and have an advantage in the long run. You draft a defense early, you end up losing games later in the season. 

Even  though these are my rankings by priority, you have to make adjustments during your draft. This is actually the most important step in drafting a championship team. Depending on what spot you are drafting in, you need to see what positions are being drafted and keep a tally. This will help you adjust your pick to see which position is a higher priority at that time. Warning: If you make this adjustment and that position is not the best choice at that given time, don't draft it because that will make your team a bit more weak.

Last, always try to get a quarterback and wide receiver combo. This will give you an advantage when they are both getting touchdowns. It makes your opponents hate playing you and that is what you want. 

All this being said, make sure you do your studying before your draft. I always recommend a custom league like I have in Yahoo Fantasy Football (Post can be read in an earlier blog) so that it is more difficult and challenging for everyone. The number 1 draft rule is, DON'T OVER DRAFT A PLAYER!

I hope you all enjoyed this section and if you have questions or comments, email me at ffltalk@gmail.com and follow me on TWITTER @ffltalk

CHEERS!

Top Kickers to Draft

I never thought I would publish a pre-season kickers list until yesterday. Throughout my fantasy football career I have never drafted a kicker due to how many there are compared to teams in your league. I would pick up and drop kickers week in and week out depending on their match-up. Now that the NFL has made an extra point a 33 yard attempt instead of 20, drafting a consistent kicker is needed so that you don't miss out on free points, especially in cold windy conditions. Below is my personal list of the top 12 kickers in the NFL that you should have on your team. Sit back, read and learn. 

Top 12 Kickers to Draft

1. Adam Vinatieri (Colts): Vinatieri has been one of the most consistent kickers since entering the NFL in 1996. His career kicking percentage is 83.7 percent and it seems that he gets better and better every year. Vinatieri is known for kicking the game winner in the Super Bowl for the New England Patriots. He dominated this position playing in harsh winter weather in New England and now plays for the Colts. I have him at number one due to his consistency and playing inside a closed stadium for 9 out of 16 games. Look for Vinatieri to not be affected by the new extra point rule and get plenty of opportunities due to the Colts high power offense. 

2. Steven Hauschka (Seahawks): Hauschka plays for one of the best offenses in the league. This team not only is consistent at getting the ball down the field, but they get the ball back quick due to their dominant defense. Hauschka has been extremely consistent since he entered the NFL and has kicked for 85.4 percent in his career. Despite playing in an outdoor stadium, he has impressed us time after time. With Jimmy Graham joining this team, look for Hauschka to get more kicks this year than he has throughout his career.

3. Matt Prater (Lions): Prater has the best leg in the league when it comes to depth. 2 seasons ago with the Broncos, Prater tied the NFL longest field goal made at 63 yards. That same season he kicked for 96.2 percent, which is the best I have seen. He has plenty left in the tank after that and is now playing for the Lions. I like Prater due to him playing under a closed roof at home and 11 out of 16 games this season.

4. Mason Crosby (Packers): Why not Crosby? He has Aaron Rodgers on his side. The packers are one of the most consistent offenses in the league and get the ball down field better than most teams. With his career percentage being at 79.1, I see him hitting around 82 percent of his kicks, but getting more opportunities than most kickers will this season. 

5. Connor Barth (Broncos): Connor Barth has kicked for 85.3 percent in his career and over 90 percent 2 out of the past 3 seasons. You don't see a kicker kick over 90 percent that often and doing it 2 out of 3 seasons is insane. I don't care if he is playing inside or out, he is a must draft this season. The reason he is at number 5 is because I don't think Denver will move the ball as well as they did in the past. If you want someone that will make 90 plus percent of his attempts, grab Barth. 

Just Outside the Top 5

6. Dan Bailey (Cowboys)

7. Matt Bryant (Falcons)

8. Shaun Suisham (Steelers)

The Rest

9. Stephen Gostkowski (Patriots)

10. Cody Parkey (Eagles)

11. Justin Tucker (Ravens)

12. Randy Bullock (Texans)

I hope this list opens your eyes and helps your research. Remember, don't ever draft a kicker too early or it will haunt your bench depth. 

Email me at ffltalk@gmail.com if you have any questions or comments and follow me on twitter @ffltalk 

NFL Top 20 2015 Tight End Pre-Season Rankings

I have already given you quarterbacks, wide receivers and running backs and now I have had a request to do tight ends. Tight ends are a little more difficult due to how rare elite ones are. Unlike every other position I have talked about, there are not as many tight ends that are consistent. This makes it hard to come up with the top 20 for this upcoming year, but I'm up for the challenge.

Remember, some of these rankings will probably get moved around the closer we get to week 1. Sit back, read and enjoy the information and predictions that are coming your way.

Top 20 2015 Pre-Season Tight End Rankings

1. Jimmy Graham (Seahawks): Jimmy Graham is the most dominant tight end in the NFL and everyone was shocked to see him being traded to the Seahawks from the Saints. Yes, he did have an off year, but so do most players in the NFL. Graham might not have Drew Brees anymore, but he has an elite quarterback in Russell Wilson and a running game in Marshawn Lynch. Having another elite quarterback and finally having a great running back on his side of the field, you will see Graham make catch after catch and dominate the red zone. Graham should have around 1,000 yards receiving with 12 touchdowns. 

2. Rob Gronkowski (Patriots): GRONK! He has been one of the best ever since Tom Brady discovered him. After fighting several injuries, Gronkowski is back to his normal dominant self. He is and will remain Tom Brady's number 1 target. The only question I have is, how will he produce without Brady under center the first 4 games? If you are a fantasy player and you see him struggling the first 2 weeks, trade for him because he will blow up when Brady returns. Gronk should end the season with 1,050 yards receiving and 10 touchdowns. 

3. Eric Ebron (Lions): Say what? Yep this is my bold predictions at this position. He might have struggled his rookie season, but Ebron has not yet hit his peak. With one year under his belt, you should see him become Stafford's 2nd or 3rd target every down. Look for Ebron to have 925 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns.

4. Martellus Bennett (Bears): Where did Martellus come from last year? He was the only offensive player that was consistent last season. He had the best season he has had since he joined the NFL. Having that performance with the Bears offense being awful, he should at worst repeat his numbers last year. I predict that the Bears offense will be more efficient and Bennett will have 850 yards receiving with 10 Touchdowns.

5. Delanie Walker (Titans): Delanie Walker had a great season last year and now he has a much better quarterback this year. Look for Walker, if he can stay healthy, to have a great season and be a big red zone target for the rookie. Delanie Walker should have 750 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns to tag along with that. 

6. Antonio Gates (Chargers): I am not the biggest fan of Gates due to him making me lose in my Fantasy Final last year on his Thursday night 3 touchdown performance. Putting that aside, he is Philip Rivers number one target everywhere on the field. The only downside to him is his age and his consistency. It seems he has 3 great games and 2 bad or okay games. Look for Gates to have 775 yards receiving and 8 Touchdowns if he plays a full role in the offense. 

7. Jordan Cameron (Dolphins): Cameron was a top 5 tight end just 2 seasons ago in Cleveland when he recorded over 900 yards receiving and 7 touchdowns. Now with Miami, he should go back to his dominant self. I see Cameron surprising owners with 800 yards receiving and getting in the end zone 8 times. 

8. Zach Ertz (Eagles): If Ertz can stay healthy all season, he should have a great year with the Eagles. Had over 700 yards receiving with only 3 Touchdowns last season. I see him matching those yards and putting up 7 touchdowns this season with Bradford under center.

9. Julius Thomas (Jaguars): Thomas is no longer a Bronco. He could be the biggest bust on this list for two reasons. First, can he ever stay healthy? He seems to always be hurt and tight end is a physical position. Second, can he put up the same numbers he did without Peyton Manning? I think he can put up decent numbers but is a high risk/high reward draft pick. I see Thomas, if healthy, getting 750 yards receiving and adding 5 touchdowns.

10. Travis Kelce (Chiefs): Kelce has a big upside in Fantasy this year. He had 862 yards receiving last year and added 5 touchdowns. He had all that and was fighting injuries. If Kelce is healthy all season I see him getting 800 yards receiving with 6 touchdowns.

Just Outside the Top 10

11. Greg Olsen (Panthers)

12. Larry Donnell (Giants)

13. Jason Witten (Cowboys)

14. Jordan Reed (Redskins)

15. Owen Daniels (Ravens)

The Rest

16. Dwayne Allen (Colts)

17. Mychal Rivera (Raiders)

18. Josh Hill (Saints)

19. Kyle Rudolph (Vikings)

20. Vernon Davis (49ers)

I hope everyone enjoyed this post. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to email me at ffltalk@gmail.com.

MAKE SURE TO ADD ME ON TWITTER @ffltalk

Cheers!

BEST CUSTOM FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUE

BEST CUSTOM FANTASY FOOTBALL LEAGUE SETUP

Playing Fantasy Football becomes addicting really fast. I always hear how people won their league and I always ask what kind of league are they in. 99% of the answers I get are "The Yahoo/NFL/CBS/NFL base league with the base point systems and rules." The base leagues are okay, but you as a league player can make the experience better through customizing your league to make every position equal and also more challenging so that your league is always on the edge of their seats everyday of the week. 

I play Yahoo Fantasy Football due to how simple they have it set up. I have played all the others as well and still like Yahoo the best. I don't like any leagues except for 12 man leagues. Having less makes it where you just have to be lucky and takes the challenge out due to everyone's roster being completely stacked with studs. Having more than 12 teams makes the league pretty boring and your bench players are awful. 

Below is what I recommend for a 12 man league and after you go through my Yahoo settings, I will tell you what makes these settings the best for anyone to use. 

My Yahoo League Settings/ Point Setup

Roster Spots:

QB

QB

WR

WR

RB

RB

TE

W/R/T
K
DEF
BENCH
BENCH
BENCH
BENCH
BENCH
BENCH
BENCH
BENCH

Maximum teams in league: 12

Type of scoring: Head-to-Head

Start League scoring in: Week 1

Can’t Cut list provider: Yahoo Sports

Maximum Player acquisitions for entire season: No maximum

Maximum trades for entire season: No maximum

Time manager have to protest trades: 1 day

Last date to trade player: Up to you

Allow draft pick trades: No

Trades Reviewed by: Votes (all league managers)

Time players are on waivers: No waivers

Determine waiver priority by: Continual rolling list

Waiver Rule: None

Live Draft Pick Time: 2 Minutes

After draft, make all unowned players: Free Agents

Make League Publicly Viewable: No

Invite Permissions: Commissioner Only

ONLY APPLY IN HEAD-TO-HEAD LEAGUES

Playoff Weeks: Week 14,15 and 16 (6 teams)

Playoff Tie-Breaker: Best regular season record vs opponent wins

Playoff Reseeding: No

Lock Eliminated Teams: No

Maximum player acquisitions per week: No maximum

Divisions: No

League Pickem Game: No

SCORING SETTINGS

Passing

Passing Touchdowns: 6 Points

Interceptions: -2 Points

Sacks: -.5 Points

Passing Yards: 25 Yards = 1 point

Pick Sixes Thrown: -4 Points

Rushing

Rushing Touchdowns: 6 Points

Rushing Yards: 10 Yards =  1 point

Receiving

Reception Touchdowns: 6 Points

Receptions: .25 Points

Reception Yards: 10 Yards = 1 Point

Kick & Punt Returning

Return Touchdowns: 6 Points

Miscellaneous

2-Point Conversions: 2 Points

Fumbles Lost: -2 Points

Offensive Fumble Return TD: 6 Points

Kickers

Field Goal 0-19 Yards: 3 Points

Field Goal 20-29 Yards: 3 Points

Field Goal 30-39 Yards: 4 Points

Field Goal 40-49 Yards: 5 Points

Field Goal 50+ Yards: 6 Points

Point After Attempt Made: 1 Point

Point After Attempt Missed: -1 Point

Defense/Special Teams

Points Allowed 0 points: 10 Points

Points Allowed 1-6 points: 7 Points

Points Allowed 7-13 points: 4 Points

Points Allowed 14-20 points: 2 Points

Points Allowed 21-27 points: 0 Points

Points Allowed 28-34 points: -1 Points

Points Allowed 35+ points: -4 Points

Sack: 1 point

Interception: 2 Points

Fumble Recovery: 2 Points

Touchdown: 6 Points

Safety: 2 Points

Block Kick: 2 Points

Kickoff and Punt Return Touchdowns: 6 Points

4^th Down Stops: 1 Point

Bonus Offense

Passing

Passing Yards (Bonus 1): 300 Yards = 6 Points

Passing Yards (Bonus 2): 400 Yards = 8 Points

Passing Yards (Bonus 3): 500 Yards = 10 Points

Rushing

Rushing Yards (Bonus 1): 100 Yards = 6 Points

Rushing Yards (Bonus 2): 150 Yards = 8 Points

Rushing Yards (Bonus 3): 200 Yards = 10 Points

Receiving

Reception Yards (Bonus 1): 100 Yards = 6 Points

Reception Yards (Bonus 2): 150 Yards = 8 Points

Reception Yards (Bonus 3): 200 Yards = 10 Points

Scoring Options

Fractional Points: Yes

Negative Points: Yes

Explanation:

This system is the best for multiple reasons:

1. 12 Total Teams
2. Since there are 12 teams and each have to start 2 quarterbacks, it makes things interesting due to everyone not able to have a bye week quarterback, which makes the draft intense for the position
3. NO WAIVERS! Why do leagues like to be socialist where the worst player at the time gets a player in free agency that everyone wants just because they are awful? First come, first serve in America. This makes each player have to keep up with news around the league and act fast on Sundays when injuries occur or a player blows up out of no where. No waivers are great when your league is full of champions instead of complainers. 
4. Head-to-Head match-ups with no divisions makes the league equal and competitive
5. All the bonus points make every position equal. Why make one position better than the other? Equal it out and let's play. 
6. NO PPR leagues. Waste of time and each catch should only be worth .25 points. Earn your points through yardage and touchdowns. 

These are only 6 reasons why this is the best format. There are many more and you can guess them by looking at the information provided and email me at ffltalk@gmail.com.

Let me know if you have any questions or comments

Cheers!

Top 5 NFL Teams

Top 5 NFL Teams

Yesterday I received an email asking me to pick who I believe the top 5 NFL teams are going to be this year. Without seeing pre-season games and how new players will make an impact for each team, it is hard to get this right, but I will give it a shot. Sit back, read and lets come back to this at the end of the season to see how many I got right.

Top 5 2015 NFL Teams

1. Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks have made it to the Super Bowl 2 years in a row. Their defense is dominant, fast and consistent. This team knows how to fight the entire game. Lets not forget to mention their start quarterback Russell Wilson, who will be even better this year due to not only having Marshawn Lynch in his backfield, but getting the best tight end in football from the Saints (Jimmy Graham). Look for Seattle to win 10 games minimal and for Russell Wilson to have a career year. 

2. Indianapolis Colts: This will be the most powerful offense in football. They made it to the AFC championship game last year and have added more stars to their offense. They picked up Frank Gore at running back from the 49ers who will finally give them a consistent running attack, Andre Johnson from my Houston Texans who still has gas left in the tank (he will thrive this year to prove a point) and also drafted another young wide receiver in the first round, Phillip Dorsett. Think that sounds great already? Lets not forget about T.Y. Hilton. Even if their defense doesn't show up, the Colts will put up 30 plus points in most of their games. Get ready to see domination.

3. Green Bay Packers: Can you say Aaron Rodgers. He is last years MVP, has Eddie Lacy in his backfield, Randall Cobb back again and Jordy Nelson. This offense, like the Colts, will be hard to stop. The only thing that can stop this team is bad coaching (NFC Championship game VS. Seahawks). You will see the Packers win their division and keep fighting for a spot in the big game. 

4. New York Giants: Say what? Yep this is a bold prediction. I believe it's comeback time for Eli Manning and the Giants. They have won two super bowls with Eli under center and now he has more weapons than ever before. Every time you think the Giants are out, they show right back up to prove you wrong. Watch them win their division and kick the Cowboys out of the playoffs. Watch out Tom Brady, if Eli is in the playoffs, you better hope he doesn't meet you in the Super Bowl. 

5. Detroit Lions: The Lions made it to the playoffs despite Calvin Johnson being hurt for most of the season. If Detroit can make it that far without their biggest play maker, look for them to improve this year and make a big playoff run. Losing Suh isn't going to ruin their record or stop them from making it to the playoffs. With Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and Eric Ebron, the Lions offense should outscore most of their opponents. 

That is my top 5 teams for this upcoming season. We will have to see how they do. If you have any other questions regarding the NFL or Fantasy Football, email me at ffltalk365@gmail.com

Cheers!

Who do I draft first?

Dez Bryant or Odell Beckham Jr?

First off, I would like to thank everyone that has been reading my page and hopefully using it to better their knowledge. I am getting a lot of feedback from some of you and also some questions to answer, which is why I made my page in the first place.

I got an email yesterday from a gentleman named Mike wondering who he should draft and why if Dez Bryant and Odell Beckham Jr. are still available? This one is a hard decision, but I didn't have to think about it too long in order to realize who the front runner was.

Odell Beckham Jr., in my opinion is the front runner. In my top 25 wide receiver post earlier this week (you can still view it on my page), Beckahm Jr. was my number 1 rated wide receiver to draft in fantasy. Dez Bryant  is a touchdown machine in Dallas. He is Tony Romo's number 1 target and with the running game being dominant, it leaves Dez open after play action. Dez was rated number 4 on my list to draft and below is are what I like and dislike about both players.



Odell Beckham Jr.

Positives

• Has the best set of hands in the NFL and proved that with the 2 fingered catch vs. Dallas
• He is young, has a fresh set of legs and dominated the league as a rookie
• Has a 2 time Super Bowl Champion throwing him the ball
• Extremely Quick and can get open short or deep

Negatives

• Has Victor Cruz coming back this season and he might take some catches away this season
• Was his rookie season a fluke? Can he repeat it or do better?
• Can he stay healthy all season?

Dez Bryant

Positives

• Big Bodied receiver that goes up to grab anything thrown his way
• Extremely competitive and strives to be the best
• Had more receiving touchdowns than any other wide receiver last year

Negatives

• If the Cowboys can't get their running attack going this year, will Tony Romo choke as usual and not get Dez the ball?
• Will Dez get frustrated and argue with his teammates if the Cowboys start losing?

All that being said, I believe Beckham has more of a fantasy upside. He works hard, can catch almost anything thrown near him and we haven't seen what he can do in a full 16 game season. Dez to me is high risk/high reward in fantasy football. He can be great for 2 games and average for the next 2. Fantasy football is all about being consistent week in and week out. You want your first round draft picks to be consistent and if they are not, they usually make the owner lose more often then not due to their lack of performance.  All I can say is, Calvin Johnson, watch out because Odell is coming for your receiving yard record.


Hope this helped you out Mike. Make a judgement call and do what you think is best.

Cheers

If you want to ask questions or have comments, email ffltalk@gmail.com